MIAMI _ Cubans in exile, who have never been shy about expressing their opinions on any subject, are waiting for Castro to die. And they hope it's soon. Just like that. I don't know many people who want him to live on. And they say so openly.
But the exiles' greatest nightmare is that everything in Cuba may simply stay the same after Castro dies. The period of transition that has already taken place in Cuba _ with Castro's brother Raul at the helm _ and no Havana street demonstrations in sight, was a scenario few here imagined. Let me explain further.
In the 16 years I've lived in Miami, I've listened to scholars and my many Cuban friends say the dictatorship would crumble with Castro's death or illness. But that hasn't happened.
On the contrary, the mysterious illness of this commander, who is so cemented to power, has forced the ruling elite in Cuba to close ranks. So much so that no one dares talk publicly about Castro's health, nor do we even know what's wrong with him. It seems that the state of Castro's stomach and colon are national secrets.
We can only assume it is something serious. When he wasn't present for his own 80th birthday celebrations, and missed the inaugurations of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, it seemed Castro was too sick to be moved. Under different circumstances, nothing would have stopped him from attending these events to boost his ego and remind us he was right all along: that Latin America's history is taking a left turn.
I have the Aug. 1, 2006, edition of the daily newspaper, El Nuevo Herald, showing the headline "CASTRO CEDE EL POWER" (CASTRO GIVES UP POWER) and accompanied by a series of articles and photographs expressing the "euphoria overflowing on the streets of Miami."
Since then, almost six months ago, there has been no partying in Miami's Little Havana. Even with Castro dead, there is the horrible suspicion that there will be no shift in Cuba if Raul succeeds in giving the regime continuity and stability.
That possibility would be awful: for Cuba, for the exile community and for all who believe Cubans on the island, just as citizens anywhere else, deserve to live in democracy.
What's disconcerting for people in Miami is that, even without Fidel Castro visibly in power, not the slightest thing seems to have changed on the island. But maybe we're wrong. Maybe Castro, from his bed, continues to give orders, and none of his timorous collaborators dares suggest reform for fear of being jailed or executed.
Is he really on his deathbed? Who knows. I stopped predicting anything about the dictator ages ago. Here in Miami, he's been killed off a dozen times and has always revived. His son, Fidel Castro Diaz-Balart, was quoted recently on a trip to Chile as saying his father's health "is improving, I see him in better shape." It's impossible to know whether he's telling the truth.
Castro's dictatorship has been brutal and there is no reason to think it will get any softer in its last waning moments. On the contrary, the death throes of a patient are often the most violent. The powerful, as they die, often demand more of their subordinates because they no longer have anything to lose.
The people of Cuban haven't rebelled because they fear military repression. With or without Castro, the reins of the military are still in his brother Raul's hands _ and those who dare to rise up against the government will live to regret it. Anyway, they conclude that it doesn't make much difference to wait a little (or a lot) longer.
Whether it means weeks, months or years, Castro is nearing the end. And what really makes me angry is that Castro will die in bed and not in jail. It bothers me as much as when the tyrant Augusto Pinochet died in the luxurious comfort of his home without ever being sentenced for his crimes in Chile.
Castro and Pinochet were dictators, repressors, killers and, according to any norms of justice, should have finished their days paying for those sins in jail. The sad thing is that when dictators like Spain's Francisco Franco or Pinochet or Castro die, they do so under their own terms. It is sickening to know they were able to get away with it until the end.
Three out of every four Cubans do not know Cuba without Castro. And Miami without Castro, I imagine, will leave many without anything to do: all those who over almost five decades have unceasingly raised their voices to denounce Castro's abuses. But they will have earned a well-deserved rest.
Cubans in exile have taught us you should never look away when leaders abuse their power. Even if 48 years or more go by. And that is why I'm on their side.