HANGING BY A THREAD
March 21, 2005

            Let’s try to forget the ridiculous, naive notion that the meetings between the President of the United States, George W. Bush, and Mexican President Vicente Fox, will someday culminate in an immigration agreement between the two countries. Bush and Fox have met on several occasions since September 2001 (including their last meeting at the presidential ranch in Texas) but  have been unable to come up with a plan to resolve the predicament of over 8 million undocumented immigrants living in the United States. So let’s discard that idea once and for all.

            As the Spanish saying goes, Fox only has only half a newscast to go in his presidency—he’ll  be out in 2006—and Bush is not about to spend his “political capital”  for working out unpopular immigration agreements.  So? So nothing. The United States is going to act unilaterally.

            The only thing left to hope for at this juncture is that some sort of immigration reform will be effected on the United States’ end. There are several immigration proposals on Congress’s doorstep. Moreover, Sentators Edward Kennedy (D) and John McCain (R) will present theirs in early April, and of course, the President himself has already outlined his temporary worker program.

            Mounting a defense  for the undocumented is a political dead-end street in the United States.  Given these immigrants’ non-voting status, no polititian coming to their aid will be able to count on their support in an election. To the contrary-- promoting any sort of assistance for the undocumented could cost a congressman his seat.  The issue, despite political rhetoric, is not a priority. If in fact it were, we would be witnessing a move by Bush to push immigration reform rather than Social Security reform.

            Because the undocumented are not a priority in this country, we are thus  unlikely to see any sort of immigration reform that would shield them from deportation and that would permit them in the end to become American citizens. At the moment, the word “amnesty” is practically banned in political circles. It could break a career.  Thus it would seem that President Bush’s plan—or some variant of it—is the most likely to survive an attack from the far right in Congress.

            A recent Pew Hispanic Center polling of 4, 836 Mexicans  who  lack legal status in the United States concluded that 71 percent of their numbers  would participate in a program such as the one proposed by Bush (despite the fact that the President expects them to return to their country of origin at the of end of  three to six years).  In other words, the undocumented are willing to grasp at any slender thread that will  serve to adjust their immigration status.

            The most interesting point brought out by the poll is that in contrast to what is being offered in Bush’s temporary worker program, the majority of the undocumented who responded (68 percent) said that they plan to remain in the United States “as long as they can” or “their whole lives.”  Such a response gives us great insight into what the undocumented intend to do:  They will accept Bush’s proposalas the only opiton open to them, but if  required later on to return to their home countries, they will not do so and will remain instead, reverting to their illegal status.

             It is patently obvious that the undocumented haven’tt the slightest intention of going back to live on the other side of the border that it would be preferable to give them the chance to permanently remain in the United States. It is impossible and unthinkable to forcibly remove 8 million people from the United States.  To attempt such a thing would be unfair, impractical and would generate enormous unfavorable public opinion worldwide. Many in the United States believe that but do not dare say so publicly.

            The numbers of the undocumented in the United States, far from decreasing, continue rising daily. According to the United Nations, Mexico is the world’s second-largest source of immigrants—after China—and the majority of the 304,000 Mexicans who leave their country annually   will be coming to the United States.

The border is as leaky as a sieve. But neither the United States nor Mexico has had the foresight  and the courage to seek a permanent solution that would prevent loss of life at the border, to provide for Mexican immigrants those jobs that are needed in the United States economy, and to assure the United States against some terrorist group stealing across the border from the south.

In the face of a chaotic and out-of-control situation on the border, paramilitary groups have sprung up, especially in Arizona, who seek to take justice into their own hands. In early April, according to a Univision report, one of these groups hopes to bring together 1,200 persons, some of them armed, in order to prove to the United States government that it is indeed possible to stop undocumented immigrants at the border.  The experiment has already triggered protests by the Mexican government and has placed the U.S. government on alert.

In the meantime, the undocumented cannot—nor should they--expect any miracles from the meetings between Fox and Bush:  One of them has the will to help them but not the way, while the other has the way to do so  but not the will just yet.