Hugo Chavez has
never lost an election _ in Venezuela. But he
is about to lose two in Latin America.One
of his main problems is that he doesn't know
how to keep his mouth shut. He has an almost
physiological need to express his opinion
about everything and everybody. Venezuelans
are already used to having their favorite TV
shows interrupted when it occurs to him to
say something. Those events, it is worth
noting, may last hours.
Every Sunday on his program "Alo
Presidente" ("Hello, President"), he forces
his ministers and aides to laugh at his jokes
and listen to him attentively _ without
having a chance to question him _ until he
gets tired. And he does not wear out easily.
Just like former Mexican President Luis
Echeverria, he is known for talking endlessly
without even taking a bathroom break, while
his ministers squirm in their seats in agony.
And anyone who talks and improvises
without interruption and without any kind of
filter between the arrival of an idea in his
head and its emergence from his mouth, are
doomed to make mistakes. That is exactly what
has happened recently in Chavez's case.
It's no secret he would like to see
Ollanta Humala win Peru's presidential
elections on June 4 and Andres Manuel Lopez
Obrador win Mexico's elections on July 2. But
instead of helping his favorite candidates,
his public comments have seriously harmed
their standing in opinion polls.
He still hasn't figured out that he
strikes fear in the hearts of many Latin
Americans. Who wants their country to be
ruled by an authoritarian, who never listens,
who boorishly insults other leaders and who
threatens to stay in office forever?
Let's take a look at Peru. Nationalist
candidate Humala handily won the first round
of elections there. But as soon as Chavez
called Humala's second-round opponent _
former Peruvian President Alan Garcia _ a
"thief" and threatened to break off relations
with Peru if Garcia wins, Humala began
sinking in the polls.
If he had just kept quiet _ like
controversial Argentinean soccer star Diego
Maradona did in his recent visit to Lima _ it
is possible Humala could have avoided the
link with "Chavist" extremism. But that
wasn't to be.
Humala had to ask him not to concern
himself but to leave it to Peruvians to take
care of their own thieves. But, the damage
was done. A video showing Humala meeting in
Caracas with Chavez and new Bolivian
President Evo Morales is circulating
everywhere. And now Humala will have to work
hard to overcome Garcia's lead in the latest
polls.
Let's go to Mexico. Lopez Obrador, the
candidate from the Democratic Revolution
Party (PRD), has never seen Chavez let alone
talked to him on the phone. But the
Venezuelan leader _ guess what! _ has already
opened his mouth to openly support Lopez
Obrador.
Aside from that, we must take note of
Venezuela's ambassador to Mexico attending a
PRD rally _ what was he doing there? _ and
Chavez's threatening Mexican President
Vicente Fox not to mess with him or "he'll
get hurt."
Taking advantage of the situation,
candidate Felipe Calderon from the ruling
National Action Party (PAN) put out an
advertisement in which he compared Chavez
famously telling Fox to "shut up, chatterbox"
with what Lopez Obrador himself said about
the Mexican president. One of Calderon's
aides told me the ad was intended to suggest
that "Lopez Obrador was as intolerant as
Chavez." And it worked.
Arrayed on my desk are the last six
surveys carried out in Mexico (by Gea,
Consulta Mitofsky, Parametria, Reforma,
Milenio and El Universal) in which Felipe
Calderon appears with a clear lead over Lopez
Obrador, who for months seemed invincible.
Lopez Obredor's stumble is due, in part, to
his refusing to take part in the first
presidential candidates debate.
But aside from campaign mistakes, the
Chavez image has really harmed Humala's and
Lopez Obrador's presidential aspirations. It
is the "black hand" of Latin-American
politics, in the face of which Humala and
Lopez Obrador can tell him: "Don't give me
any assistance, pal."
There's more.
After Evo Morales was elected president in
Bolivia, his clear alliance with Chavez and
Cuban dictator Fidel Castro, as well as his
recent nationalization of the oil and gas
industry, has other Latin American countries
looking much more carefully at presidential
hopefuls from the political left. After
achieving a handful of presidencies through
elections, has the left reached its limit in
Latin America because of Chavez? We will find
out soon.
Meanwhile, the lesson for other
presidential candidates is the Chavez factor:
associating yourself with Chavez can cost you
the elections.
If he really wants to see Humala and Lopez
Obrador secure their respective victories,
the intelligent course would be to keep mum.
But that appears impossible. He has an
unstoppable tongue, loves to hear his own
voice and constantly monopolizes the cameras.
Who would dare silence him or snatch away the
microphone?
If he keeps on course, he will start
losing elections _ at least outside Venezuela