We really
shouldn't be surprised anymore. But every
time a Latin American country chooses a
populist or leftist president, the whole
continent jumps to attention. Such choices
have already been made in Brazil, Argentina,
Uruguay, Chile, Bolivia and Venezuela. This
week the focus is on Peru. (Later, it will be
Mexico and Nicaragua.)The big question in
Peru is whether nationalist candidate Ollanta
Humala can overcome former President Alan
Garcia's clear lead in the polls to win the
election on Sunday. The last surveys I saw
suggested that votes for former candidate
Lourdes Flores (who did not make it to the
second round) are tilting toward Garcia. We
shall see.
But, regardless of what happens in Peru,
Humala's candidacy is yet another sign of
Latin Americans' vast dissatisfaction with
their leaders and the so-called benefits of
democracy and free markets.
A couple of months ago I was in "Lima, the
Ugly," as the capital's residents call it. It
was painful seeing the contrast between
evident opulence _ the new lavish
constructions in Miraflores, luxury hotels
for foreigners and posh oceanfront
restaurants _ and the hordes of jobless
adults and young children begging in the
streets. In spite of Peru's 7 percent growth
rate last year, 50 percent of its citizens is
poor.
According to a U.N. Development Program
survey, nine out of 10 Peruvians believe that
it is the politicians' fault that the
democratic system doesn't function. Two
decades ago, when the region was suffocating
under authoritarian regimes, confidence that
democracy would solve all problems _ like
income disparity and lack of health and
education systems _ was widespread. But that
confidence has plummeted.
It is obvious to everyone that for
democracy to work, it needs to go much
further than guaranteeing clean, transparent,
multiparty elections. That hasn't happened.
And that is called democratic deception.
Latin Americans in general and Peruvians
in particular have realized they cannot eat
democracy. Because of this democratic
deception, elections in Peru have been won by
candidates campaigning against everything.
Authoritarian (former) President Alberto
Fujimori _ who was recently released from
detention in Chile _ won his election in this
manner, and so did the unpopular current
president, Alejandro Toledo. Now, Humala has
emerged as the anti-system candidate.
Humala _ a former rebellious military
officer who defines himself as a
"nationalist" but not a leftist _ was
successful in the first electoral round,
labeling Lourdes Flores as the "candidate of
the rich" and Garcia as an evil, egocentric
has-been and a specialist in hyperinflation.
In the campaign for the second round,
Humala stumbled. He did not have a convincing
defense for the accusations made against him
about human rights violations _ when he was
in the military _ and his links to the
controversial and meddling Venezuelan
president, Hugo Chavez. He sank like a
perforated submarine. Also, he inexcusably
arrived 20 minutes late for the one and only
presidential debate.
With so many mistakes, Garcia overtook
Humala who was then forced to go on the
defensive. By the same token, Garcia himself
was saved from having to explain why he was
such an incompetent administrator from 1985
to 1990 _ accumulated inflation during that
period topped 2.2 million percent _ and how
he could justify his affluent lifestyle on a
public servant's modest salary.
"Choosing between Alan and Ollanta is like
choosing between cancer and AIDS," a Peruvian
journalist told me. Or, as writer Mario
Vargas Llosa put it, it's about deciding who
is the "lesser evil." But, aside from the
June 4 elections, there's a reason for
candidate Humala's rise to the forefront of
politics: Peru's crippling poverty.
Humala, in a long conversation, explained
to me the hopelessness many Peruvians feel:
"I belong to a generation of Peruvians that
has realized we have been fooled by the
traditional political class ... political
systems have collapsed and people feel these
representative democracies do not really
represent the interests of citizens."
Humala, then, represents the rejection and
frustration that millions of Peruvians feel
regarding their country's precarious state.
And even if they believe Garcia is more
likely to win this Sunday, many will cast a
contrary vote for Humala. This is a way _
perhaps the only way they have _ to express
their anger.